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The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2016

February 4, 2016 • GLOBAL ECONOMY, CRITICAL ANALYSIS, World Politics, Americas, On Donald Trump Administration

By Allan J. Lichtman

The Keys to the White House, a prediction system that correctly forecasted the outcomes of all eight presidential elections since 1984 demonstrate that neither the choices of the party nominees nor campaign events will affect the outcome of America’s 2016 presidential election. The election will turn on the performance of the party controlling the White House. Although prospects look bright for another Democratic victory, the Keys indicate how circumstances could shift to favour the Republicans.

 

A New Vision of Presidential Politics

Leaders of both the Republican and Democratic parties are worried about the ‘electability’ of their leading candidates for the presidency of the United States. Republicans fear that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are too abrasive and xenophobic for the moderate voters in a general election dominated by moderate voters. Democrats fret over Hillary Clinton’s likeability and the controversies over the Clinton Foundation and her use of a private email server while United States Secretary of State. They worry whether America is ready for a woman president or as an alternative Senator Bernie Sanders, an avowed ‘Democratic socialist’. Republicans also worry about the potential for a protracted nomination struggle, which they believe would weaken the party.

All of these fears are unfounded. The identity of the Republican and Democratic Party nominees will have no impact on the outcome of the 2016 presidential contest. Neither Donald Trump’s bluster nor Hillary Clinton’s gender will impede their path to the White House under the right circumstances. Republican candidates for the presidential nomination can battle through their National Convention without jeopardising their chances for winning in November. Extended nomination contest only matter for the party already holding the White House, not the challenging party.

 
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8 Responses to The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2016

  1. Jim Blowers says:

    Bloomberg could topple Key 4. Also could the Cuba deal help the Democrats secure Key 11?

  2. Kevin King says:

    At this point I think key #2 is very likely to be turned, at least 75%-80%, based on its definitions. Bernie is very likely to win at least 1/3 of the delegates, IMHO.

    Re key #4, I’m skeptical that Trump won’t pull more Democrats than Republicans. There can be a long discussion, but as has been pointed out, he’s not a conservative.

    Key #5 appears to have perhaps a 1/3 chance of turning. Is there any comparisons to be made with 1992, given the economic angst extant throughout the nation?

    Re key #7, might the carbon rules under the Clean Air Act prevent its turning? What difference does it make that it was a rulemaking rather than legislation? Assuming the rules would otherwise lock the key, does the Supreme Court injunction turn it? What if the injunction is somehow lifted. Might the key lock even though the rules are not yet implemented, ala Obamacare?

    Assuming key #7 remains as is, on the keys Bernie’s nomination followed by a Bloomberg third party run would almost guarantee a Republican victory, whatever else happens.

    • Shawn says:

      After South Carolina, I think Sanders chances of getting 1/3 of the delegates (including Superdelegates) is quite small. We’ll have confirmation after tomorrow.

      I think Trump will more likely get the GOP nomination rather than going third party. Any third party candidacy will be from a establishment conservative.

      I think key #11 should stay up now as the Iran deal has been finalized.

      • Alistair says:

        Actually I think key#10 stays now that the Iranians elected more moderates to the Parliament and the Iran will get rid of most of the nuclear energy.

  3. Paul D. Whitehead says:

    What about the role of public perception in calling key 5? In 1992, the economy was growing again by the election. Nevertheless, the key was still called false because the public still perceived the economy to be in a recession. It would seem to me that a case can be made for calling key 5 false both in 2012 and this year (at least at this point) because of public perceptions. Although the economy may have been growing slowly since about June 2009, that does not seem to be enough for the public to clearly perceive an improving economy. Even the decreasing unemployment rate may be due more to discouraged workers giving up than to real improvements in the job market. The calling of that key false in 1992 would seem to establish the rule of thumb that a jobless recovery counts as a recession as far as the key is concerned. The fact that the economy may be growing slowly rather than actually declining would not seem to be enough to make key 5 true so long as the public does not clearly perceive an improving economy.

  4. DALLAS MATULA says:

    Informative article . I was fascinated by the information . Does someone know where my business can grab a sample a form form to type on ?

  5. Karl Kilponen says:

    From what I can see Donald Trump will crush the Democrats and fix the broke government and Make America Great Again. His knowledge of business and deal making is like no other. The Democrats tax and spend policies would finally put our country under. Bankruptcy proceedings would begin and all government programs and government business would cease. We need to fix the 20 trillion dollar debt now !!!!!

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